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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 60

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 39 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP