Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 78

Denver Broncos 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

(1:53) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 32 for 10 yards (28-T.Badie).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.10 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model