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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [90-L.Van Ness] at GB 9. 29-X.McKinney ran ob at GB 9 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP