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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -8.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

GB
70.8%
CLE
29.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.255 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.037 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.183 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: -0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • GB on 3 more days rest than CLE

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

GB

Jayden Reed WR Out Foot
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Oblique
Tucker Kraft TE Questionable Knee

CLE

Mike Hall Jr. DT Out Knee
Joel Bitonio G Questionable Back
Jack Conklin T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 10
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:57 FG GB (14:57) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – CLE 0
  • Q3 03:29 TD GB (3:29) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 86-J.FitzPatrick for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – CLE 0
  • Q4 03:45 FG CLE (3:45) 25-A.Szmyt 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. GB 10 – CLE 3
  • Q4 03:04 TD CLE (3:04) 74-T.Jenkins and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – CLE 9
  • Q4 00:02 FG CLE (:02) 25-A.Szmyt 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 10 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 43%

    (10:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to GB 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 0-M.Golden to GB 36 for 3 yards (89-K.Davis; 86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (14:57) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 24%

    (11:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to GB 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 12 for 5 yards (5-R.Jenkins).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%

    (:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [90-L.Van Ness] at GB 9. 29-X.McKinney ran ob at GB 9 for no gain.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CLE 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to GB 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-31-D.McMillon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 20.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CLE 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 2-D.Carter to CLE 20 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (13:41) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 35 for 1 yard (58-I.McDuffie; 7-Q.Walker).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to GB 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-20-J.Bernard-Converse.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:34) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 17 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 94%

    (3:45) 25-A.Szmyt 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.