Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

(12:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CLE 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.89 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model