Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

(11:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to GB 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-20-J.Bernard-Converse.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.37 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model