Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

(9:34) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model