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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 2-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model