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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 58

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to JAX 3, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP