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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

HOU
32.7%
JAX
67.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): -0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Jaylin Smith CB Out Hamstring

JAX

Wyatt Milum G Out Knee
Ezra Cleveland G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 10
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:09 TD JAX (2:09) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 06:57 FG HOU (6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – JAX 7
  • Q3 06:27 FG JAX (6:27) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 3 – JAX 10
  • Q4 09:25 TD HOU (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – JAX 10
  • Q4 01:52 TD JAX (1:52) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – JAX 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to JAX 3, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

    (6:45) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to JAX 37, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 41 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on JAX-51-V.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 41.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 40 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane). Penalty on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at HOU 35. Penalty on JAX-47-D.Gardeck, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 25 yards to JAX 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 23%

    (1:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to JAX 19, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (6:27) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 80%

    (1:15) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 66 yards to JAX 20, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 33 for 13 yards (43-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 35%

    (6:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (98-T.Settle).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to HOU 46 for 13 yards (26-An.Johnson; 29-E.Murray).