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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 9

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP