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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 4 at the 52
Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(1:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to JAX 19, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.20 EP
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.23 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP
KICK
-1.36 EP
- 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
