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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.54 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -1.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model