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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.25 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP