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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 86

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 66 yards to JAX 20, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 33 for 13 yards (43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model