Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 84

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to JAX 37, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 41 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on JAX-51-V.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model