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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.62 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP