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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

IND
66.0%
TEN
34.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to IND: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.279 vs Daniel Jones (IND) -0.028 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 25
–
TEN 18
Projected margin: IND by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

IND

Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Concussion
Tyler Warren TE Questionable Toe

TEN

JC Latham T Out Hip
T'Vondre Sweat DT Out Ankle
Kevin Winston Jr. S Doubtful Hamstring
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Biceps
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Back
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB Questionable Ankle
Bryce Oliver WR Questionable Knee
Kalel Mullings RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 41
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:20 TD IND (14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 12:45 FG TEN (12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. IND 7 – TEN 3
  • Q1 07:40 FG IND (7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – TEN 3
  • Q1 01:11 TD IND (1:11) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined. IND 16 – TEN 3
  • Q2 10:54 FG TEN (10:54) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. IND 17 – TEN 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 3-S.Shrader 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – TEN 6
  • Q3 11:14 TD IND (11:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – TEN 6
  • Q3 05:11 TD TEN (5:11) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 27 – TEN 12
  • Q3 01:36 TD IND (1:36) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – TEN 13
  • Q4 08:45 TD TEN (8:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 34 – TEN 19
  • Q4 05:58 TD IND (5:58) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 40 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%

    (12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (7:40) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 19 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to IND 23, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (10:54) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 37%

    (5:39) 6-J.Slye 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (3:19) 3-S.Shrader 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%

    (:42) 6-J.Slye 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:00) 17-D.Jones up the middle to IND 48 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right [92-N.Gallimore].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 89%

    (2:22) 5-A.Richardson left tackle to TEN 21 for 2 yards (42-K.White).