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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(:42) 6-J.Slye 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-G.Stewart), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -1.47 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP