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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 8

Tennessee Titans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 34

What Actually Happened

(8:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model