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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 41 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 5-A.Richardson left tackle to TEN 21 for 2 yards (42-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.86 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model