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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 28

New York Giants 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy (32-N.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.59 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model