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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 20:20 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

KC
50.4%
NYG
49.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (NYG): -0.002 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

KC

Michael Danna DE Out Quadricep
Kristian Fulton CB Out Ankle
Xavier Worthy WR Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Royals WR Questionable Knee

NYG

Darius Muasau LB Out Concussion
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Doubtful Foot
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Doubtful Calf
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Back
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Foot
Chauncey Golston LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 22
–
NYG 9

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:49 FG KC (3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 09:52 FG KC (9:52) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 01:49 TD NYG (1:49) 44-C.Skattebo right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 9 – NYG 6
  • Q3 08:26 TD KC (8:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 80-T.Thornton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 15 – NYG 6
  • Q4 10:15 FG NYG (10:15) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. ** Injury Update: NYG-9-G.Gano has returned to the game. KC 16 – NYG 9
  • Q4 06:07 TD KC (6:07) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-29-K.Hunt, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 22 – NYG 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%

    (9:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy (32-N.Bolton).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (:20) 12-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to KC 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-N.Hewitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (9:52) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (5:28) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:21) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-2-J.Williams. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 37%

    (4:46) 12-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to KC 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-N.Remigio to KC 19 for 4 yards (23-A.Green).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:19) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 20 for 9 yards (41-J.Winchester).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (10:15) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. ** Injury Update: NYG-9-G.Gano has returned to the game.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-W.Robinson to KC 4 for 26 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson [90-C.Omenihu].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to NYG 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 39 for 8 yards (2-J.Williams).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to NYG 45 for 2 yards (54-L.Chenal).