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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 7

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. ** Injury Update: NYG-9-G.Gano has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP