4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 84

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to NYG 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 39 for 8 yards (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.36 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model