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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model