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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 12-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to KC 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-N.Hewitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model