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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model