Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.228 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.173 EPA/dropback
- MIA defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
MIA
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:34 TD MIA (8:34) 31-O.Gordon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 0
- Q1 04:11 TD BUF (4:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – BUF 6
- Q2 12:00 TD BUF (12:00) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 85-J.Hawes for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – BUF 13
- Q2 00:11 TD MIA (:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 14
- Q3 10:25 TD BUF (10:25) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – BUF 20
- Q4 12:22 TD MIA (12:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – BUF 21
- Q4 07:23 TD BUF (7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 21 – BUF 27
- Q4 00:27 FG BUF (:27) 15-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. MIA 21 – BUF 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 56%
(2:37) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 37 for 15 yards (3-K.Britt; 53-C.Goode).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%
(6:07) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(8:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to BUF 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-B.Codrington MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 20.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 60%
(6:43) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington to MIA 36 for 11 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:12) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington to MIA 33 for 11 yards (26-Ty.Johnson; 22-R.Davis).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 67%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at BUF 21 for 15 yards (9-T.Rapp).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%
(:27) 15-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.