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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model