Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

(8:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to BUF 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-B.Codrington MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model