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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 16-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington to MIA 36 for 11 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP