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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 28 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(:27) 15-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model