4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 37 for 15 yards (3-K.Britt; 53-C.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.71 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP