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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 3-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model