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Pittsburgh Steelers

2-1 HC Mike Tomlin
@
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New England Patriots

1-2 HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PIT
42.2%
NE
57.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): -0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20 13–27
–
NE 23 16–30
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

DeShon Elliott S Out Knee
Max Scharping G Out Knee
Alex Highsmith LB Out Ankle
Joey Porter Jr. CB Out Hamstring
Derrick Harmon DT Questionable Knee

NE

Christian Gonzalez CB Out Hamstring
Keion White DE Questionable Illness
Jack Westover FB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 21
–
NE 14

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD PIT (8:29) 14-K.Gainwell left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 13:53 TD PIT (13:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – NE 0
  • Q2 09:04 TD NE (9:04) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – NE 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – NE 13
  • Q4 02:20 TD PIT (2:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – NE 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-26-B.Echols, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:28) 3-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (5:54) 38-R.Stevenson left end to NE 25 for 10 yards (40-J.Peppers; 21-C.Clark).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:35) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to NE 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 11 yards (33-J.Sawyer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:47) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to NE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%

    (2:49) 32-T.Henderson left end to PIT 44 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward). PENALTY on PIT-51-N.Herbig, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 44.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 95%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 50%

    (12:35) 3-C.Waitman punts 25 yards to NE 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 58%

    (8:28) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 33 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 83%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to PIT 29 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols).

    See the full breakdown →