4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 85

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 38-R.Stevenson left end to NE 25 for 10 yards (40-J.Peppers; 21-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.60 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model