Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 7

(11:35) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to NE 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 11 yards (33-J.Sawyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model