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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 28

New England Patriots 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to PIT 29 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.40 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model