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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-26-B.Echols, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model