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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model