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Baltimore Ravens

1-3 HC John Harbaugh
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Kansas City Chiefs

2-2 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:25 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

BAL
56.4%
KC
43.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.280 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.000 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27 20–34
–
KC 21 14–28
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

BAL

Patrick Ricard FB Out Calf
Broderick Washington DE Out Ankle
Nnamdi Madubuike DT Out Neck
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Hamstring
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle
Travis Jones DT Questionable Knee
Isaiah Likely TE Questionable Foot

KC

Michael Danna DE Doubtful Quadricep
Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Ankle
Ashton Gillotte DE Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 20
–
KC 37

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:41 TD BAL (9:41) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 43-J.Hill for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 05:44 FG KC (5:44) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. BAL 7 – KC 3
  • Q2 10:03 FG KC (10:03) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. BAL 7 – KC 6
  • Q2 04:03 TD KC (4:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – KC 12
  • Q2 01:45 TD KC (1:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-I.Pacheco for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – KC 19
  • Q2 00:02 FG BAL (:02) 33-T.Loop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – KC 20
  • Q3 11:55 TD KC (11:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 80-T.Thornton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – KC 26
  • Q3 07:26 FG BAL (7:26) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – KC 27
  • Q3 01:10 FG KC (1:10) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. BAL 13 – KC 30
  • Q4 13:20 TD KC (13:20) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – KC 36
  • Q4 02:08 TD BAL (2:08) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – KC 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 41%

    (7:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to BAL 41 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 91%

    (5:44) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 65%

    (14:20) 74-J.Taylor and 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to BAL 34 for 2 yards (91-B.Okoye).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (10:03) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:58) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to KC 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 44 for 15 yards (32-T.Simpson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right [56-G.Karlaftis].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%

    (:31) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (7:26) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (1:10) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (14:27) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete short right.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (13:20) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:33) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 47 for 9 yards (21-J.Hicks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 67%

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 35 for no gain (22-T.McDuffie).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 41%

    (5:45) 29-K.Hunt right guard to BAL 42 for 3 yards (45-M.Green).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 19 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 26%

    (3:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to BAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →