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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:31) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model