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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP