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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.83 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model