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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 37

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 47 for 9 yards (21-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model