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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 37 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 29-K.Hunt right guard to BAL 42 for 3 yards (45-M.Green).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.61 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model