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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 37 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to BAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.27 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model