4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model