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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 14 for 61 yards (6-S.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model